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Investment and economic outlook, October 2024

The latest forecasts for investment returns and region-by-region economic outlook.

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The upturn in U.S. unemployment before the start of the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting cycle likely reflects a normalised labour market, not one poised for rapid deterioration. The unemployment rate has risen from 3.4% in early 2023 to the low-4% range. It’s now in line with Vanguard’s estimate of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment. NAIRU, as it's known, is the lowest rate of unemployment that wouldn’t be expected to promote inflation.

 

Key gauge suggests balance in the U.S. labour market

Note: NAIRU is the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment.

Sources: based on data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve FRED database through August 31, 2024.

In its hiking cycle that began in March 2022, the Fed raised rates steadily—and, at times, aggressively—through July 2023 to fight inflation propelled to generational highs by supply-and-demand imbalances related to the COVID-19 pandemic. These imbalances were especially noteworthy in the labour market. A worker shortage kept wage pressures high and the unemployment rate well below NAIRU.

In the lead-up to its first rate cut, in September, the Fed expressed confidence that the pace of inflation was moving toward target but indicated some concern about the labour market’s health. The Fed’s dual mandate is to ensure price stability and foster maximum sustainable employment.

“Our NAIRU estimate suggests that the labour market has reached a healthy balance,” said Adam Schickling, a Vanguard senior economist. “While the Fed may favour additional rate cuts to bring the policy rate closer to their estimate of the neutral rate, we don’t expect near-term labour market conditions to prompt an accelerated cutting cycle.” [1]

[1] The neutral rate is a theoretical interest rate that would neither stimulate nor restrict an economy at full employment.

 

Outlook for financial markets

Our 10-year annualised nominal return and volatility forecasts are shown below. They are based on the 30 June, 2024, running of the Vanguard Capital Markets Model® (VCMM). Equity returns reflect a range of 2 percentage points around the 50th percentile of the distribution of probable outcomes. Fixed income returns reflect a 1-point range around the 50th percentile. More extreme returns are possible.

 

Australian dollar investors

Australian equities: 4.7%–6.7% (21.7% median volatility)

Global equities ex-Australia (unhedged): 4.3%–6.3% (19.1%)

Australian aggregate bonds: 4.1%–5.1% (5.6%)

Global bonds ex-Australia (hedged): 4.3%–5.3% (4.9%)

Notes: These probabilistic return assumptions depend on current market conditions and, as such, may change over time.

Source: Vanguard Investment Strategy Group.

IMPORTANT: The projections or other information generated by Markets Model regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results, and are not guarantees of future results. Distribution of return outcomes from the VCMM are derived from 10,000 simulations for each modelled asset class. Simulations are as of 31 May, 2024. Results from the model may vary with each use and over time.

 

Region-by-region outlook

The views below are those of the global economics and markets team of Vanguard Investment Strategy Group as of October 16, 2024.

 

Australia

The economy is growing at its slowest pace in decades, but inflation that is falling only gradually is likely to keep the central bank from cutting its policy interest rate this year.

We expect:

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to remain on hold for the rest of the year before beginning a gradual easing cycle amid an anticipated weakening in both inflation and the labour market.
  • That inflation will not fall sustainably to the midpoint of the RBA’s 2%–3% target range until 2025, given low productivity growth and the resulting elevation in unit labour costs. The pace of trimmed mean inflation—a measure of core inflation that excludes items at the extremes—slowed to 3.4% year over year in August.
  • Economic growth to slowly start to recover in the second half of 2024, with full-year growth around 1%.

 

United States

Recent activity supports our view that economic growth is moderating but remains healthy. The Fed appears to have declared victory in its inflation fight, based on its most recent projections for the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. It sees balanced risks to its dual mandate of ensuring price stability and maximum sustainable employment.

We expect:

  • Reductions of 0.25 percentage point in the Fed’s target for short-term interest rates at in both November and December 2024. That would leave its policy rate at 4.25%–4.5% at year-end.
  • Full-year 2024 economic growth above 2%.
  • The year-over-year pace of inflation (core PCE) to rise to 2.8% by year-end because of challenging comparisons with year-earlier data.
  • The unemployment rate to end 2024 marginally above its September rate of 4.1%.

 

United Kingdom

The nation’s budget is set for release October 30. We’re watching for measures that could boost long-term economic growth—and productivity—primarily through greater public and private investment. The U.K. has trailed the rest of the G7 in investment levels for most of the last three decades.

We expect:

  • The Bank of England (BOE) to cut its policy interest rate by 0.25 percentage point in both November and December, leaving a year-end bank rate of 4.5%. Further cuts next year likely will drop the rate to 3.5% by year-end 2025.
  • Full-year 2024 economic growth of 1%, down from 1.2% in our previous forecast.
  • The year-over-year rate of core inflation to end 2024 around 2.8% and to hit the BOE’s 2% target by the second half of 2025.

 

Euro area

With Germany on the cusp of recession and euro area growth momentum slowing sharply, the European Central Bank trimmed its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage point today (October 17). It was the third such reduction of a cutting cycle that began in June.

We expect:

  • Slower third-quarter economic growth, as a two-year manufacturing slump continues, and full-year 2024 growth of 0.6%, down from 0.8% in our previous forecast.
  • Another ECB policy rate cut in December, which would leave its deposit facility rate at 3% at year-end.
  • The year-over-year pace of core inflation, which excludes food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco prices, to fall to about 2.5% by year-end 2024. It was 2.7% in September. Still-elevated services inflation (3.9% last month), the last significant barrier to lower core inflation, underscores our long-held view that the last mile to lowering inflation to central bank target levels is the most difficult.

 

Japan

After decades of economic and market stagnation, Japan may be on the path of a sustainable rebound. Japan’s new prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, appears supportive of a new direction for the Bank of Japan.

We expect:

  • Forthcoming inflation data and third-quarter Tankan business survey results could lead the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to raise interest rates in December. An increase in real wages and inflation likely will give policymakers confidence to continue rate hikes in 2025.
  • Full-year 2024 economic growth of about 0.2%, slightly above consensus, and a materially stronger 2025.
  • A full-year 2024 inflation rate of about 2.5%, above the BOJ’s 2% inflation target.

 

China

The Ministry of Finance pledged in an October 12 briefing that forthcoming fiscal stimulus would address property market and local government debt challenges. Its failure to specify a headline dollar figure left some observers disappointed.

We expect:

  • That meaningful stimulus is forthcoming, in an amount that could exceed China’s government debt limit and would require National People’s Congress (NPC) approval. We expect such specificity to be provided after the NPC’s late-October meeting.
  • China will still be able to reach its 5% economic growth target for 2024—provided a sufficiently timely fiscal policy response. Gross domestic product grew just 0.7% in the second quarter compared with the first and 4.7% year over year.
  • Headline inflation of 0.8% and core inflation of 1.0% for 2024.

 

Canada

Monetary policy remains restrictive and more potent than in the United States, and the pace of inflation is falling. We expect:

  • The Bank of Canada will reduce its overnight rate target, currently 4.25%, to 4% or 3.75% at year-end.
  • Below-trend economic growth of 1.25%–1.5% for the full year of 2024.
  • The year-over-year pace of core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, to end 2024 in the 2.1%–2.4% range.

 

Emerging markets

Policy interest rates and the pace of inflation are moving in opposite directions in Latin America’s two largest economies.

Rising inflation driven by drought led the central bank of Brazil to raise its policy Selic rate to 10.75% last month. Broad prices rose by 4.42% year over year in September, near the upper end of a 1.5-percentage-point tolerance band around the bank’s 3% inflation target. Another rate hike may occur if inflation persists.

In Mexico, the pace of core inflation fell for a 20th straight month, to 3.91% year over year in September. Banxico, the central bank, cut interest rates last month for the third time this year, to 10.5%. With core inflation falling into Banxico’s target range, we believe additional rate cuts are possible in 2024. Peso depreciation will remain a concern.

Notes: All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest.

Investments in bonds are subject to interest rate, credit, and inflation risk.

Investments in stocks and bonds issued by non-U.S. companies are subject to risks including country/regional risk and currency risk. These risks are especially high in emerging markets.

IMPORTANT: The projections and other information generated by the Vanguard Capital Markets Model regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results, and are not guarantees of future results. VCMM results will vary with each use and over time.

The VCMM projections are based on a statistical analysis of historical data. Future returns may behave differently from the historical patterns captured in the VCMM. More important, the VCMM may be underestimating extreme negative scenarios unobserved in the historical period on which the model estimation is based.

The Vanguard Capital Markets Model® is a proprietary financial simulation tool developed and maintained by Vanguard’s primary investment research and advice teams. The model forecasts distributions of future returns for a wide array of broad asset classes. Those asset classes include U.S. and international equity markets, several maturities of the U.S. Treasury and corporate fixed income markets, international fixed income markets, U.S. money markets, commodities, and certain alternative investment strategies. The theoretical and empirical foundation for the Vanguard Capital Markets Model is that the returns of various asset classes reflect the compensation investors require for bearing different types of systematic risk (beta). At the core of the model are estimates of the dynamic statistical relationship between risk factors and asset returns, obtained from statistical analysis based on available monthly financial and economic data from as early as 1960. Using a system of estimated equations, the model then applies a Monte Carlo simulation method to project the estimated interrelationships among risk factors and asset classes as well as uncertainty and randomness over time. The model generates a large set of simulated outcomes for each asset class over several time horizons. Forecasts are obtained by computing measures of central tendency in these simulations. Results produced by the tool will vary with each use and over time.

This article contains certain 'forward looking' statements. Forward looking statements, opinions and estimates provided in this article are based on assumptions and contingencies which are subject to change without notice, as are statements about market and industry trends, which are based on interpretations of current market conditions. Forward-looking statements including projections, indications or guidance on future earnings or financial position and estimates are provided as a general guide only and should not be relied upon as an indication or guarantee of future performance. There can be no assurance that actual outcomes will not differ materially from these statements. To the full extent permitted by law, Vanguard Investments Australia Ltd (ABN 72 072 881 086 AFSL 227263) and its directors, officers, employees, advisers, agents and intermediaries disclaim any obligation or undertaking to release any updates or revisions to the information to reflect any change in expectations or assumptions.

© 2024 Vanguard Investments Australia Ltd. All rights reserved.

 

 

 

Vanguard
23 OCT 2024
vanguard.com.au

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Retirement Planning

Retiring on your own terms is not always easy to achieve, however it is evident that those who plan for retirement are more likely to do so. Results also show that obtaining professional help during the pre-retirement years further improves the probability of attaining your retirement objectives.

The earlier you start implementing a plan the better the outcomes.

During one’s working life there is always an income to make ends meet when raising children, paying off a mortgage, etc.

Retirement planning is about the lifestyle you will have after you stop work and receiving employment income.  Planning focuses on issues such as how much superannuation is enough, taking a super pension, claiming the Age Pension, making superannuation contributions while receiving a pension from a super fund, estate planning and looking after your family.

Planning properly is becoming even more important now we are expected to live longer.  This greater need means that professional help has never been more important.

At Wybenga Financial we will provide the time and expertise needed to help you implement the best pre-retirement plan possible.  Contact us today to discuss how we can work together on: (02) 9300 3000 or .

Building Wealth

Investing your hard earned savings can be a complex task.  There are many issues such as levels of risk, market timing, asset classes, and your own goals, objectives and preferences that need to be considered. It can often seem a daunting task. At Wybenga Financial we have the expertise to assist you in taking control of your finances and making sure you are generating the wealth you need both now and in the future.

The first step is to create a plan. At Wybenga Financial we take great care in getting to know our clients and their future goals and objectives. We combine our knowledge of your personal goals together with an analysis of your current situation, to create a detailed, personalised plan that will help you meet your objectives. This plan will become your road map which outlines how we are going to meet your goals, whilst aligning all investment decisions to your specific risk tolerance.

After we have created your personal plan, we move to implementation. This is where we action the immediate changes set out in your plan, and put in place reminders for anything that is to occur in the future. As your professional advisers, we can action many steps on your behalf making the implementation of changes as painless for our clients as possible. We aim to make the process smooth and seamless, providing a holistic service that can be executed with ease.

The final and most important phase of the relationship with Wybenga Financial is the ongoing management of your wealth. This ensures you are sticking to your plan and that your portfolio is aligned to your needs and attitude toward risk. An ongoing relationship ensures that we know when your circumstances change and that these can be recognised and reflected in changes to your investment approach.

While we are reviewing your portfolio from the perspective of your personal goals and situation, we also take into account the wider economic landscape and changes to legislation. We continually review and analyse our preferred investments in a structured and objective way. The benefit to our clients is that we are unemotional. This can be significantly beneficial over the long term.

At Wybenga Financial we can provide the time and expertise that will help you invest intelligently and prudently.  Contact us today to discuss how we can work together: (02) 9300 3000 or .

Personal Insurance

Life insurance isn’t just a cost, though it often feels like it.  You buy peace-of-mind that should a serious issue effect you then the consequences won’t unduly affect your family.  Insurance provides you with the ability to manage the financial and emotional impact of some of the more drastic events, whether personally or in your small business.

Insurance can’t replace a loved one but it can help reduce the financial burden by providing the capital to ensure your family has choices.

Many Australians are underinsured and the consequences can be very serious for families should there be a death or serious injury. A yes to any of the following questions means you may have a need for insurance coverage:

  1. Do you have a mortgage?
  2. Do you have school fees?
  3. Do you have any personal loans?
  4. Do you have any credit card debt?
  5. Do you have dependents?
  6. Would your financial position be affected if you were to suffer from an illness or injury?
  7. Do you want to have enough capital to look after your dependents if you were unable to care for them for an extended period of time or perhaps indefinitely?

We understand that it can be difficult determining the type and level of cover you might need, let alone choosing an insurer. We can assist by helping you determine your needs and recommend an insurer that is right for you.

At Wybenga Financial we know how to protect your wealth and will recommend solutions that best suit your needs. Contact us today to discuss how we can work together: (02) 9300 3000 or .

Superannuation

Superannuation is mandatory but taking an early and active interest in your retirement planning is critical to ensuring your benefits are maximised by the time you retire.  Many will have a superannuation scheme through employment but increasing numbers are starting their own Self-Managed Super Fund (SMSF).

For many, simply relying on employer contributions may not be enough to provide the lifestyle you desire at retirement. We can assist in building strategies to ensure your retirement goals are met and your required lifestyle is maintained throughout retirement.

It is always best to start saving and planning for your retirement as early as you can. 

At Wybenga Financial we know our job is to help you meet your retirement needs and we have the skills and experience to do this for you.  Contact us today to discuss how we can work together: (02) 9300 3000 or .

Self Managed Super Funds

Self-Managed Superannuation Funds (SMSFs) offer a good strategy option for many individuals, families and small business owners to build tax effective wealth and to protect assets over time. SMSFs are becoming popular for those who are ready to take control of their own super investments as they give you ultimate control and flexibility to manage your retirement benefits.

It must be noted though, that you will have increased responsibilities as a trustee of the fund. As a SMSF Trustee you need to keep up to date with all required regulations and keep up with the fast paced financial markets.

Wybenga Financial can work with you to understand your personal financial situation and decide whether a SMSF structure is appropriate for you. We will also make sure your assets are invested in the most effective way to maximise your retirement benefits.

Should you wish to consider establishing a SMSF then we can help with all aspects of the process from establishment to managing your compliance obligations.

Wybenga Financial would welcome the opportunity to discuss how we can help maximise your opportunities to grow your wealth through a Self Managed Superannuation Fund (SMSF).  Contact us today to discuss how we can work together: (02) 9300 3000 or .

Estate Planning

Your estate is made up of everything you own. This includes your home, property, furniture, car, personal possessions, business, investments, superannuation and bank accounts.

Having an estate plan is extremely important.  Having a will is just the first step in your estate plan. It is critical to consider what outcomes you would like for your estate and to ensure a plan is in place to achieve those outcomes, both including and beyond the terms of your will.

Wybenga Financial would welcome the opportunity to discuss how we can help ensure your estate is organised to ensure your plans are implemented as you wish.  Contact us today to discuss how we can work together: (02) 9300 3000 or .

Finance

Loans and loan management are central to overall financial management.  Obtaining the the most appropriat loans for your needs is crucial and Wybenga Financial can help you with solutions that meet your short and long term needs.

At Wybenga Financial we work with experienced mortgage brokers that can assist you in obtaining the most appropriate loan for your needs and objectives. Whilst this is an external service, we work closely with the brokers to ensure the process is as easy and smooth as possible.

Contact us today to discuss how we can work together: (02) 9300 3000 or .

Property

We have partnerships with many respected property agents and research firms. This enables us to source suitable properties for individuals, couples and families looking to make an investment into property.

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Strategic Planning

Strategic planning is determining how an investor is going to meet their goals and objectives. It is about helping clients define their goals, gathering information and analysing data to make a plan, then implementing the plan and reviewing the results. It is also reviewing and updating goals and objectives as clients move through different phases of life.

At Wybenga Financial, this is the most critical service we provide. For more information please visit our Building Wealth through Strategic Planning page or contact us to discuss how we can work together: (02) 9300 3000 or .

Financial Videos

 

Secure File Transfer

Secure File Transfer is a facility that allows the safe and secure exchange of confidential files or documents between you and us.

Email is very convenient in our business world, there is no doubting that. However email messages and attachments can be intercepted by third parties, putting your privacy and identity at risk if used to send confidential files or documents. Secure File Transfer eliminates this risk.

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Tess Uncle

B.Sc, M.Com, CA, DipFP

Tess has been working in Chartered Accounting Firms since 2001 and in this time has had a broad range of experience in superannuation, taxation, business services, and financial strategy.

Since 2016, Tess has turned her attention to Financial Planning, earning a Diploma of Financial Planning in 2015 and leading the newly established financial division of the Wybenga Group as a director of Wybenga Financial.

Tess’s mission is to bring the ethics and integrity of her Chartered Accounting background to the area of wealth management.

As a woman in a male dominated field, Tess is active in promoting gender equality in the industry through various programs and mentoring opportunities.

Using her depth of knowledge and experience in tax and accounting Tess is able to demonstrate a level of competence that is unique in the Financial Planning sector.

  • 2001 – Commenced employment with Wybenga & Partners and part-time accountancy studies
  • 2004 – Graduated Masters of Commerce from the University of New South Wales
  • 2005 – Admitted as an Associate Member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants Australia & New Zealand
  • 2007 – Promoted to Manager at Wybenga & Partners
  • 2012 – Appointed as Associate Director
  • 2015 – Awarded a Diploma of Financial Planning
  • 2016 – Appointed as Director of Wybenga Group Pty Ltd, Wybenga & Parthers Pty Ltd and Wybenga Financial Pty Ltd

Schedule a Meeting with Tess


Adam Roberts

B.Bus, B.Sc, CA, DipFP

Adam has been working in Chartered Accounting Firms since 2005 and in this time has had a broad range of experience in superannuation, taxation, business services, and financial strategy.

Since 2016, Adam has turned his attention to Financial Planning, earning a Diploma of Financial Planning in 2015 and leading the newly established financial division of the Wybenga Group as a director of Wybenga Financial. Adam specialises in Financial Planning, wealth accumulation, portfolion management, tax and investment strategies including structuring investments and superannuation, and insurances.

Adam’s mission is to bring the ethics and integrity of his Chartered Accounting background to the area of wealth management.

Combining traditional accounting and financial services has been a welcome move for Adam, allowing him to operate and advise in the financial sector that has been a long time personal passion.

Using his depth of knowledge and experience in tax and accounting Adam is able to demonstrate a level of competence that is unique in the Financial Planning sector.

  • 2005 – Graduated Bachelor of Science from the University of Western Sydney
  • 2005 – Commenced employment with Wybenga & Partners and part-time accountancy studies
  • 2007 – Graduated Bachelor of Business from the University of Western Sydney
  • 2010 – Admitted as an Associate Member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants Australia & New Zealand
  • 2010 – Promoted to Manager at Wybenga & Partners
  • 2012 – Appointed as Associate Director
  • 2015 – Awarded a Diploma of Financial Planning
  • 2016 – Appointed as Director of Wybenga Group Pty Ltd, Wybenga & Parthers Pty Ltd and Wybenga Financial Pty Ltd

Schedule a Meeting with Adam


Advisory Cadetships

What is an Advisory Cadetship?
An Advisory Cadetship enables you to commence your career whilst attaining the necessary university qualifications by studying part-time.

How does it work?
Generally, our cadets complete a relevant business or accounting degree at the University of New South Wales, the University of Technology Sydney, Macquarie University, or the University of Western Sydney.

The Firm provides 3-hours paid study leave per week to attend university. This can either be taken at the one time or broken between days depending on the individual’s requirements. In addition, the Firm provides paid study leave for both mid-semester and end-of-year exams.

We take the work life balance very seriously at Wybenga Financial and our cadets are encouraged to have a fulfilling life outside the office. A typical day will have you arriving at the office at around 8.30am with most days concluding at 5.30pm.

What are the benefits of an Advisory Cadetship with Wybenga Financial?
Our cadets benefit from the following:

  • Career path – on completion of their degree our cadets have significant practical experience which will assist them in advancing their careers
  • Work helps your studies – by working full-time our cadets are able to apply their practical knowledge in the university subjects
  • Camaraderie with other cadets – the Firm has a number of cadets at various stages of their career
  • Mentoring – cadets are paired with a senior staff member who oversees their progress and training both at work and with their studies
  • Communication and feedback – the Firm has an open door policy which enables all cadets to interact with all members of staff including Directors
  • Culture – the Firm promotes a friendly social culture with a number of functions throughout the year
  • Modern environment – including ‘socialising’ areas such as pool table and break out area
  • Training – ongoing support and technical training. We also provide internal and external training on a monthly basis
  • Remuneration – working full-time provides a market salary and independence with salaries being reviewed every 6-months

What happens when I complete my degree?
The completion of your degree is the first step of what we hope to be a long and successful career with us. The next step is the commencement of a Diploma of Financial Planning followed by completing the requirements to become a Certified Financial Planner (CFP).

There are always progression opportunities for the right cadets and we are dedicated to the long term development of our staff.

Who should apply?
Current Year 12 students or first/second year University Students who:

  • want to commence their career in financial advisory;
  • are due to commence or are currently completing a part-time business or commerce degree at university with an advisory major;
  • want to gain valuable hands-on experience while completing their qualifications;
  • are looking for a friendly working environment;
  • are team players who display initiative;
  • have a commitment to self-development;
  • possess excellent personal presentation and communication skills; and
  • are motivated and mature minded.

How do I apply for an Advisory Cadetship?
To apply for a Cadetship position at Wybenga Financial send us your details. Please also include in your covering letter why you wish to do a cadetship, include relevant qualities you possess, main interests / achievements, and any previous employment.

Interested candidates should initially forward a resume/covering letter of no more than 3-pages. Please provide full details of contact information (telephone or e-mail).

What if I have more questions?
For further information about our Cadetship program, please send your enquiry to .