Rapid interest rate rises reveal global market frailties
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Elevated volatility is a key feature of markets today.
By Jumana Saleheen, Vanguard Chief Economist, Europe
Elevated volatility is a key feature of markets today. The United Kingdom saw some particularly sharp moves in late September in response to a fiscal policy announcement known as the mini budget. The volatility created havoc in an unexpected place—the domestic pensions sector—and only a timely Bank of England intervention prevented a crisis that might have spiraled beyond U.K. borders.
The proposed mini budget raised investors’ concerns about future inflation and U.K. debt sustainability. In response, sterling fell against the dollar and euro, and bond prices fell across a range of maturities. The speed at which bond prices fell exposed vulnerabilities in strategies that certain pension funds had used to manage their balance sheet. It forced them into bond sales amid margin calls.
The near-crisis appears to have abated after a new chancellor was appointed and the government reversed course on much of the mini budget. But it is worth stepping back and considering why markets are volatile. A combination of factors has contributed, including the strong post-COVID recovery and tight labor market, the war in Ukraine and European energy crisis, and central banks’ efforts to tackle multidecade-high inflation. To return inflation to their 2% target, central banks in the United States, the euro area, and the U.K. have communicated the need to continue raising rates in earnest, such that high inflation does not become embedded into the economy.
Rising expectations for central bank interest rates
Notes: Market expectations for central bank policy rates at a given time are represented by one-month forward swap rates. U.S. swaps are based on published overnight federal funds rate indexes. Euro area swaps are based on the published euro overnight index average. U.K. swaps are based on published overnight bank rate indexes. Neutral-rate ranges are Vanguard estimates. The neutral rate is the level at which policy interest rates would neither stimulate nor restrict an economy. Estimates of the neutral rate are determined by long-term economic factors and are subject to a wide band of statistical uncertainty. Estimates of the nominal neutral rate assume inflation of 2% in the United States, 1.8% in the euro area, and 2% in the United Kingdom. The Vanguard terminal rate is our view of the level at which central bank policy rates will peak during their interest rate tightening cycle.
Source: Vanguard analysis, as of October 14, 2022.
Interest rates have increased rapidly over the past six months, and that pace is expected to continue. The charts above show expectations for how high rates will go. They are significantly higher now than they were last month, particularly for the Bank of England. And they are materially higher than where they were at the end of last year. Our view is that policy rates in these major economies will continue to rise into March 2023.
Vanguard believes that central banks will adhere to their inflation-fighting paths unless “something breaks”—an economic sacrifice or market threat beyond the controlled slowdown they are trying to engineer. Of course, the path of policy will depend on future events and data outturns. In our recent Global Macro Matters research Getting Inside the Fed’s Head, we discuss how good luck with respect to energy prices, inflation expectations, and labor markets could result in a lower terminal rate of interest. A series of unlucky shocks, however, may give rise to a higher terminal rate.
This extraordinary economic environment breeds volatile conditions that can spread to distinct parts of the market, broadly increasing risk. Where, when, and even whether other such crises-in-waiting may materialize isn’t clear. In recent weeks, debates have arisen about the fundamental health of a major European bank and a sovereign European nation.
Investors need to understand that financial markets may face continued shocks until they find their footing. That’s why markets are so keen to nail down the final destination for the global macroeconomy. Can major central banks navigate the economy’s return to a world of low and stable inflation, a world we know well and desire? If so, what will it take to get us there?
What is turning into a sprint toward the terminal interest rate reflects policymakers’ sincere belief that, by acting decisively, they can bring us back to that comfortable world. Fragilities in the U.K. pension sector were a wake-up call that the journey will be bumpy. Markets struggle with those bumps. They crave the certainty that policymakers are poised to succeed. And these days, certainty is in short supply.
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Retirement Planning
Retiring on your own terms is not always easy to achieve, however it is evident that those who plan for retirement are more likely to do so. Results also show that obtaining professional help during the pre-retirement years further improves the probability of attaining your retirement objectives.
The earlier you start implementing a plan the better the outcomes.
During one’s working life there is always an income to make ends meet when raising children, paying off a mortgage, etc.
Retirement planning is about the lifestyle you will have after you stop work and receiving employment income. Planning focuses on issues such as how much superannuation is enough, taking a super pension, claiming the Age Pension, making superannuation contributions while receiving a pension from a super fund, estate planning and looking after your family.
Planning properly is becoming even more important now we are expected to live longer. This greater need means that professional help has never been more important.
At Wybenga Financial we will provide the time and expertise needed to help you implement the best pre-retirement plan possible. Contact us today to discuss how we can work together on: (02) 9300 3000 or .
Building Wealth
Investing your hard earned savings can be a complex task. There are many issues such as levels of risk, market timing, asset classes, and your own goals, objectives and preferences that need to be considered. It can often seem a daunting task. At Wybenga Financial we have the expertise to assist you in taking control of your finances and making sure you are generating the wealth you need both now and in the future.
The first step is to create a plan. At Wybenga Financial we take great care in getting to know our clients and their future goals and objectives. We combine our knowledge of your personal goals together with an analysis of your current situation, to create a detailed, personalised plan that will help you meet your objectives. This plan will become your road map which outlines how we are going to meet your goals, whilst aligning all investment decisions to your specific risk tolerance.
After we have created your personal plan, we move to implementation. This is where we action the immediate changes set out in your plan, and put in place reminders for anything that is to occur in the future. As your professional advisers, we can action many steps on your behalf making the implementation of changes as painless for our clients as possible. We aim to make the process smooth and seamless, providing a holistic service that can be executed with ease.
The final and most important phase of the relationship with Wybenga Financial is the ongoing management of your wealth. This ensures you are sticking to your plan and that your portfolio is aligned to your needs and attitude toward risk. An ongoing relationship ensures that we know when your circumstances change and that these can be recognised and reflected in changes to your investment approach.
While we are reviewing your portfolio from the perspective of your personal goals and situation, we also take into account the wider economic landscape and changes to legislation. We continually review and analyse our preferred investments in a structured and objective way. The benefit to our clients is that we are unemotional. This can be significantly beneficial over the long term.
At Wybenga Financial we can provide the time and expertise that will help you invest intelligently and prudently. Contact us today to discuss how we can work together: (02) 9300 3000 or .
Personal Insurance
Life insurance isn’t just a cost, though it often feels like it. You buy peace-of-mind that should a serious issue effect you then the consequences won’t unduly affect your family. Insurance provides you with the ability to manage the financial and emotional impact of some of the more drastic events, whether personally or in your small business.
Insurance can’t replace a loved one but it can help reduce the financial burden by providing the capital to ensure your family has choices.
Many Australians are underinsured and the consequences can be very serious for families should there be a death or serious injury. A yes to any of the following questions means you may have a need for insurance coverage:
Do you have a mortgage?
Do you have school fees?
Do you have any personal loans?
Do you have any credit card debt?
Do you have dependents?
Would your financial position be affected if you were to suffer from an illness or injury?
Do you want to have enough capital to look after your dependents if you were unable to care for them for an extended period of time or perhaps indefinitely?
We understand that it can be difficult determining the type and level of cover you might need, let alone choosing an insurer. We can assist by helping you determine your needs and recommend an insurer that is right for you.
At Wybenga Financial we know how to protect your wealth and will recommend solutions that best suit your needs. Contact us today to discuss how we can work together: (02) 9300 3000 or .
Superannuation
Superannuation is mandatory but taking an early and active interest in your retirement planning is critical to ensuring your benefits are maximised by the time you retire. Many will have a superannuation scheme through employment but increasing numbers are starting their own Self-Managed Super Fund (SMSF).
For many, simply relying on employer contributions may not be enough to provide the lifestyle you desire at retirement. We can assist in building strategies to ensure your retirement goals are met and your required lifestyle is maintained throughout retirement.
It is always best to start saving and planning for your retirement as early as you can.
At Wybenga Financial we know our job is to help you meet your retirement needs and we have the skills and experience to do this for you. Contact us today to discuss how we can work together: (02) 9300 3000 or .
Self Managed Super Funds
Self-Managed Superannuation Funds (SMSFs) offer a good strategy option for many individuals, families and small business owners to build tax effective wealth and to protect assets over time. SMSFs are becoming popular for those who are ready to take control of their own super investments as they give you ultimate control and flexibility to manage your retirement benefits.
It must be noted though, that you will have increased responsibilities as a trustee of the fund. As a SMSF Trustee you need to keep up to date with all required regulations and keep up with the fast paced financial markets.
Wybenga Financial can work with you to understand your personal financial situation and decide whether a SMSF structure is appropriate for you. We will also make sure your assets are invested in the most effective way to maximise your retirement benefits.
Should you wish to consider establishing a SMSF then we can help with all aspects of the process from establishment to managing your compliance obligations.
Wybenga Financial would welcome the opportunity to discuss how we can help maximise your opportunities to grow your wealth through a Self Managed Superannuation Fund (SMSF). Contact us today to discuss how we can work together: (02) 9300 3000 or .
Estate Planning
Your estate is made up of everything you own. This includes your home, property, furniture, car, personal possessions, business, investments, superannuation and bank accounts.
Having an estate plan is extremely important. Having a will is just the first step in your estate plan. It is critical to consider what outcomes you would like for your estate and to ensure a plan is in place to achieve those outcomes, both including and beyond the terms of your will.
Wybenga Financial would welcome the opportunity to discuss how we can help ensure your estate is organised to ensure your plans are implemented as you wish. Contact us today to discuss how we can work together: (02) 9300 3000 or .
Finance
Loans and loan management are central to overall financial management. Obtaining the the most appropriat loans for your needs is crucial and Wybenga Financial can help you with solutions that meet your short and long term needs.
At Wybenga Financial we work with experienced mortgage brokers that can assist you in obtaining the most appropriate loan for your needs and objectives. Whilst this is an external service, we work closely with the brokers to ensure the process is as easy and smooth as possible.
Contact us today to discuss how we can work together: (02) 9300 3000 or .
Property
We have partnerships with many respected property agents and research firms. This enables us to source suitable properties for individuals, couples and families looking to make an investment into property.
At Wybenga Financial we will assist you implement the most appropriate property investment plan possible. Contact us today to discuss how we can work together: (02) 9300 3000 or .
Strategic Planning
Strategic planning is determining how an investor is going to meet their goals and objectives. It is about helping clients define their goals, gathering information and analysing data to make a plan, then implementing the plan and reviewing the results. It is also reviewing and updating goals and objectives as clients move through different phases of life.
At Wybenga Financial, this is the most critical service we provide. For more information please visit our Building Wealth through Strategic Planning page or contact us to discuss how we can work together: (02) 9300 3000 or .
Financial Videos
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Login to Secure File Transfer, or contact us if you require a username and password.
General Calculators
Please enjoy the links to these free tools supplied by MoneySmart – a great resource for general financial information. Please get in touch if you would like to discuss any questions that you may have as a result of using these calculators.
Tess has over 22-years experience in Chartered Accounting Firms and in this time has had a broad range of experience in superannuation, taxation, business services, and financial strategy.
Over the last seven-years, Tess has turned her attention to Financial Planning, earning a Diploma of Financial Planning in 2015 and leading the newly established financial division of the Wybenga Group as a director of Wybenga Financial.
Tess’s mission is to bring the ethics and integrity of her Chartered Accounting background to the area of wealth management.
As a woman in a male dominated field, Tess is active in promoting gender equality in the industry through various programs and mentoring opportunities.
Using her depth of knowledge and experience in tax and accounting Tess is able to demonstrate a level of competence that is unique in the Financial Planning sector.
2001 – Commenced employment with Wybenga & Partners and part-time accountancy studies
2004 – Graduated Masters of Commerce from the University of New South Wales
2005 – Admitted as an Associate Member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants Australia
2007 – Promoted to Manager at Wybenga & Partners
2012 – Appointed as Associate Director
2015 – Awarded a Diploma of Financial Planning
2016 – Appointed as Partner of Wybenga Group and Director of Wybenga Financial
Schedule a Meeting with Tess
Adam Roberts
B.Bus, B.Sc, CA, DipFP
Adam has over 18-years experience in Chartered Accounting Firms and in this time has had a broad range of experience in superannuation, taxation, business services, and financial strategy.
Over the last seven-years, Adam has turned his attention to Financial Planning, earning a Diploma of Financial Planning in 2015 and leading the newly established financial division of the Wybenga Group as a director of Wybenga Financial.
Adam’s mission is to bring the ethics and integrity of his Chartered Accounting background to the area of wealth management.
Combining traditional accounting and financial services has been a welcome move for Adam, allowing him to operate and advise in the financial sector that has been a long time personal passion.
Using his depth of knowledge and experience in tax and accounting Adam is able to demonstrate a level of competence that is unique in the Financial Planning sector.
2005 – Graduated Bachelor of Science from the University of Western Sydney
2005 – Commenced employment with Wybenga & Partners and part-time accountancy studies
2007 – Graduated Bachelor of Business from the University of Western Sydney
2010 – Admitted as an Associate Member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants Australia
2010 – Promoted to Manager at Wybenga & Partners
2012 – Appointed as Associate Director
2015 – Awarded a Diploma of Financial Planning
2016 – Appointed as Partner of Wybenga Group and Director of Wybenga Financial
Schedule a Meeting with Adam
Advisory Cadetships
What is an Advisory Cadetship? An Advisory Cadetship enables you to commence your career whilst attaining the necessary university qualifications by studying part-time.
How does it work? Generally, our cadets complete a relevant business or accounting degree at the University of New South Wales, the University of Technology Sydney, Macquarie University, or the University of Western Sydney.
The Firm provides 3-hours paid study leave per week to attend university. This can either be taken at the one time or broken between days depending on the individual’s requirements. In addition, the Firm provides paid study leave for both mid-semester and end-of-year exams.
We take the work life balance very seriously at Wybenga Financial and our cadets are encouraged to have a fulfilling life outside the office. A typical day will have you arriving at the office at around 8.30am with most days concluding at 5.30pm.
What are the benefits of an Advisory Cadetship with Wybenga Financial? Our cadets benefit from the following:
Career path – on completion of their degree our cadets have significant practical experience which will assist them in advancing their careers
Work helps your studies – by working full-time our cadets are able to apply their practical knowledge in the university subjects
Camaraderie with other cadets – the Firm has a number of cadets at various stages of their career
Mentoring – cadets are paired with a senior staff member who oversees their progress and training both at work and with their studies
Communication and feedback – the Firm has an open door policy which enables all cadets to interact with all members of staff including Directors
Culture – the Firm promotes a friendly social culture with a number of functions throughout the year
Modern environment – including ‘socialising’ areas such as pool table and break out area
Training – ongoing support and technical training. We also provide internal and external training on a monthly basis
Remuneration – working full-time provides a market salary and independence with salaries being reviewed every 6-months
What happens when I complete my degree? The completion of your degree is the first step of what we hope to be a long and successful career with us. The next step is the commencement of a Diploma of Financial Planning followed by completing the requirements to become a Certified Financial Planner (CFP).
There are always progression opportunities for the right cadets and we are dedicated to the long term development of our staff.
Who should apply? Current Year 12 students or first/second year University Students who:
want to commence their career in financial advisory;
are due to commence or are currently completing a part-time business or commerce degree at university with an advisory major;
want to gain valuable hands-on experience while completing their qualifications;
are looking for a friendly working environment;
are team players who display initiative;
have a commitment to self-development;
possess excellent personal presentation and communication skills; and
are motivated and mature minded.
How do I apply for an Advisory Cadetship? To apply for a Cadetship position at Wybenga Financial send us your details. Please also include in your covering letter why you wish to do a cadetship, include relevant qualities you possess, main interests / achievements, and any previous employment.
Interested candidates should initially forward a resume/covering letter of no more than 3-pages. Please provide full details of contact information (telephone or e-mail).
What if I have more questions? For further information about our Cadetship program, please send your enquiry to .