It's a natural question about global policymakers' multitrillion-dollar efforts to prop up economies and markets against the monumental threat of the COVID-19 pandemic. And the question has understandably taken a back seat to confronting immediate health and welfare challenges.
Now, as economic activity reemerges even as daily new confirmed cases of the virus top 100,000, we can start to address how governments can pay back their debts.1 For developed markets, at least, the situation may be less dire than some fear.
A rational response
It first may make sense to touch upon just how rational policymakers' moves have been. The more than $9 trillion in spending, loans, and loan guarantees that the world's largest economies have committed to countering the negative effects of the pandemic, while extraordinary, speak to the uniquely consequential nature of the challenge.2
Few have disputed the potential for serious, long-lasting economic harm in the absence of such programs. That, alongside recognition that such outlays are unlikely to recur and the structuring of much of the fiscal response as loans rather than grants, makes such bold moves more palatable.
Loans and equity stakes can be thought of as government investment in those assets. Thus, any increase in debt from those disbursements could be reversed as those equities are sold or as the loans mature, except for a small percentage of possible bankruptcy losses. According to the International Monetary Fund, more than half the total fiscal response in the largest developed and emerging economies belongs to these categories.
To be sure, instituting such policy in the face of blaring headlines about triple-digit debt-to-GDP ratios requires steely conviction. For the group of major developed economies, the debt-to-GDP ratio jumped 24 percentage points in about two months. In comparison, a similar increase in global debt in response to the 2008 global financial crisis took two years to play out. The average debt level for this group of countries sits at 154% of GDP.
The fiscal math behind debt sustainability
Notes: Countries included in the calculation are Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Scenario 1 represents 4% nominal GDP growth, an average 10-year yield of 1.2%, and a 2% budget deficit. Scenario 2 represents 3% nominal GDP growth, an average 10-year yield of 1.2%, and a 2% budget deficit. Scenario 3 represents 3% nominal GDP growth, an average 10-year yield of 1.2%, and a 5% budget deficit. Source: Vanguard calculations based on data from Thomson Reuters Datastream.
As striking as those figures sound, most policymakers and market participants understand that debt sustainability—the cost of servicing debt compared with economic growth—is far more important than the cold, hard headline number. In that respect, although the health shock led to unprecedented emergency spending, our low-interest-rate environment is a favorable backdrop. It's more than conceivable that developed-market economies can grow out of their newfound debt.
With solid yet realistic growth rates in coming years as economies bounce back from pandemic-induced contractions, we could see debt in these economies returning to pre-COVID levels by the end of the decade (Scenario 1 in the figure above). Moreover, even more muted growth assumptions are enough to put debt on a sustainable downward trajectory, thanks to the sub-1% 10-year yields at which governments are issuing their debt (Scenario 2).
Although fiscal consolidation—raising taxes, cutting spending, or both—is the tried and true method for tackling debt challenges, these scenarios don't depend on draconian assumptions. Only modest fiscal austerity, in the form of budget deficits not larger than 2% or 3% of GDP, is required alongside modest growth to reduce debt-to-GDP levels. But some fiscal discipline is needed; runaway deficits won't work. Not even sub-1% yields would be sufficient for a grow-out-of-debt strategy if fiscal deficits remained systematically above 3% (Scenario 3).
What about central banks?
Central bank actions over the coming months and years will also have important implications for developed markets' debt arithmetic. In fact, everything central banks are doing to help their economies right now increases the odds of a sustainable debt scenario going forward. Although explicit coordination between monetary and fiscal policy would violate the sacrosanct principle of central bank independence, the reality is that the massive monetary accommodations in most developed markets in response to the pandemic will help significantly from a debt perspective.
Beyond policies of zero or negative interest rates, central banks will need to adopt forward-guidance frameworks. Global financial markets no doubt will respond better if they know what's coming. The U.S. Federal Reserve, for example, will need to put a forward-guidance framework in place as soon as the U.S. economy starts to move from contraction to expansion, which Vanguard's base case foresees occurring in the second half of 2020. Guidance could be timeline-driven, or it could depend on data outcomes such as when unemployment falls back toward more typical levels or when inflation rises toward targets around 2% in most developed markets.
Higher inflation could be beneficial, if central banks can finally achieve it. In normal conditions, higher inflation doesn't help with debt reduction because bond markets eventually catch up through higher interest rates. But in rare circumstances like wartime spending or disaster responses, such as in this COVID-19 crisis, higher inflation can erode the value of one-off debt.
Of course, the greatest condition of all is the pandemic's progression. A second wave of infection that requires another round of national lockdowns is a worst-case scenario—from both health and economic standpoints—that we unfortunately can't rule out. On the other hand, a sooner-than-expected development of a vaccine or indications that we've achieved herd immunity would accelerate recoveries.
I don't mean to suggest that everything is rosy. Recovery will take time and be uneven, coming later to sectors that depend on face-to-face interaction. And while our view on developed markets is sanguine, our outlook for emerging markets—which we don't foresee being able to simply grow themselves out of debt—is far more challenging. But considering where we've been in recent months, just being able to discuss recovery in present terms offers promise.
General Advice Warning: The information contained on this web site is general in nature and does not take into account your personal situation. You should consider whether the information is appropriate to your needs, and where appropriate, seek professional advice from a financial adviser.
Retiring on your own terms is not always easy to achieve, however it is evident that those who plan for retirement are more likely to do so. Results also show that obtaining professional help during the pre-retirement years further improves the probability of attaining your retirement objectives.
The earlier you start implementing a plan the better the outcomes.
During one’s working life there is always an income to make ends meet when raising children, paying off a mortgage, etc.
Retirement planning is about the lifestyle you will have after you stop work and receiving employment income. Planning focuses on issues such as how much superannuation is enough, taking a super pension, claiming the Age Pension, making superannuation contributions while receiving a pension from a super fund, estate planning and looking after your family.
Planning properly is becoming even more important now we are expected to live longer. This greater need means that professional help has never been more important.
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Investing your hard earned savings can be a complex task. There are many issues such as levels of risk, market timing, asset classes, and your own goals, objectives and preferences that need to be considered. It can often seem a daunting task. At Wybenga Financial we have the expertise to assist you in taking control of your finances and making sure you are generating the wealth you need both now and in the future.
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The final and most important phase of the relationship with Wybenga Financial is the ongoing management and monitoring of your wealth. This ensures you are sticking to your plan and that your portfolio is aligned to your needs and attitude toward risk. An ongoing relationship ensures that we know when your circumstances change and that these can be recognised and reflected in changes to your investment approach.
While we are monitoring your portfolio from the perspective of your personal goals and situation, we also take into account the wider economic landscape and changes to legislation. We continually review and analyse our preferred investments in a structured and objective way. The benefit to our clients is that we are unemotional. This can be significantly beneficial over the long term.
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Life insurance isn’t just a cost, though it often feels like it. You buy peace-of-mind that should a serious issue effect you then the consequences won’t unduly affect your family. Insurance provides you with the ability to manage the financial and emotional impact of some of the more drastic events, whether personally or in your small business.
Insurance can’t replace a loved one but it can help reduce the financial burden by providing the capital to ensure your family has choices.
Many Australians are underinsured and the consequences can be very serious for families should there be a death or serious injury. A yes to any of the following questions means you may have a need for insurance coverage:
Do you have a mortgage?
Do you have school fees?
Do you have any personal loans?
Do you have any credit card debt?
Do you have dependents?
Would your financial position be affected if you were to suffer from an illness or injury?
Do you want to have enough capital to look after your dependents if you were unable to care for them for an extended period of time or perhaps indefinitely?
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Superannuation is mandatory but taking an early and active interest in your retirement planning is critical to ensuring your benefits are maximised by the time you retire. Many will have a superannuation scheme through employment but increasing numbers are starting their own Self-Managed Super Fund (SMSF).
For many, simply relying on employer contributions may not be enough to provide the lifestyle you desire at retirement. We can assist in building strategies to ensure your retirement goals are met and your required lifestyle is maintained throughout retirement.
It is always best to start saving and planning for your retirement as early as you can.
At Wybenga Financial we know our job is to help you meet your retirement needs and we have the skills and experience to do this for you. Contact us today to discuss how we can work together: (02) 9300 3000 or .
Self Managed Super Funds
Self-Managed Superannuation Funds (SMSFs) offer a good strategy option for many individuals, families and small business owners to build tax effective wealth and to protect assets over time. SMSFs are becoming popular for those who are ready to take control of their own super investments as they give you ultimate control and flexibility to manage your retirement benefits.
It must be noted though, that you will have increased responsibilities as a trustee of the fund. As a SMSF Trustee you need to keep up to date with all required regulations and keep up with the fast paced financial markets.
Wybenga Financial can work with you to understand your personal financial situation and decide whether a SMSF structure is appropriate for you. We will also make sure your assets are invested in the most effective way to maximise your retirement benefits.
Should you wish to consider establishing a SMSF then we can help with all aspects of the process from establishment to managing your compliance obligations.
Wybenga Financial would welcome the opportunity to discuss how we can help maximise your opportunities to grow your wealth through a Self Managed Superannuation Fund (SMSF). Contact us today to discuss how we can work together: (02) 9300 3000 or .
Your estate is made up of everything you own. This includes your home, property, furniture, car, personal possessions, business, investments, superannuation and bank accounts.
Having an estate plan is extremely important. Having a will is just the first step in your estate plan. It is critical to consider what outcomes you would like for your estate and to ensure a plan is in place to achieve those outcomes, both including and beyond the terms of your will.
Wybenga Financial would welcome the opportunity to discuss how we can help ensure your estate is organised to ensure your plans are implemented as you wish. Contact us today to discuss how we can work together: (02) 9300 3000 or .
Loans and loan management are central to overall financial management. Obtaining the best loans for your needs is crucial and Wybenga Financial can help you with solutions that meet your short and long term needs.
At Wybenga Financial we work with experienced mortgage brokers that can assist you in obtaining the best loan for your needs and objectives. Whilst this is an external service, we work closely with the brokers to ensure the process is as easy and smooth as possible.
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We have partnerships with many respected property agents and research firms. This enables us to source suitable properties for individuals, couples and families looking to make an investment into property.
At Wybenga Financial we will provide the time and expertise needed to help you implement the best property investment plan possible. Contact us today to discuss how we can work together: (02) 9300 3000 or .
Strategic planning is determining how an investor is going to meet their goals and objectives. It is about helping clients define their goals, gathering information and analysing data to make a plan, then implementing the plan and monitoring the results. It is also monitoring and updating goals and objectives as clients move through different phases of life.
Secure File Transfer is a facility that allows the safe and secure exchange of confidential files or documents between you and us.
Email is very convenient in our business world, there is no doubting that. However email messages and attachments can be intercepted by third parties, putting your privacy and identity at risk if used to send confidential files or documents. Secure File Transfer eliminates this risk.
Login to Secure File Transfer, or contact us if you require a username and password.
Please enjoy the links to these free tools supplied by MoneySmart – a great resource for general financial information. Please get in touch if you would like to discuss any questions that you may have as a result of using these calculators.
Tess has over 22-years experience in Chartered Accounting Firms and in this time has had a broad range of experience in superannuation, taxation, business services, and financial strategy.
Over the last seven-years, Tess has turned her attention to Financial Planning, earning a Diploma of Financial Planning in 2015 and leading the newly established financial division of the Wybenga Group as a director of Wybenga Financial.
Tess’s mission is to bring the ethics and integrity of her Chartered Accounting background to the area of wealth management.
As a woman in a male dominated field, Tess is active in promoting gender equality in the industry through various programs and mentoring opportunities.
Using her depth of knowledge and experience in tax and accounting Tess is able to demonstrate a level of competence that is unique in the Financial Planning sector.
2001 – Commenced employment with Wybenga & Partners and part-time accountancy studies
2004 – Graduated Masters of Commerce from the University of New South Wales
2005 – Admitted as an Associate Member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants Australia
2007 – Promoted to Manager at Wybenga & Partners
2012 – Appointed as Associate Director
2015 – Awarded a Diploma of Financial Planning
2016 – Appointed as Partner of Wybenga Group and Director of Wybenga Financial
B.Bus, B.Sc, CA, DipFP
Adam has over 18-years experience in Chartered Accounting Firms and in this time has had a broad range of experience in superannuation, taxation, business services, and financial strategy.
Over the last seven-years, Adam has turned his attention to Financial Planning, earning a Diploma of Financial Planning in 2015 and leading the newly established financial division of the Wybenga Group as a director of Wybenga Financial.
Adam’s mission is to bring the ethics and integrity of his Chartered Accounting background to the area of wealth management.
Combining traditional accounting and financial services has been a welcome move for Adam, allowing him to operate and advise in the financial sector that has been a long time personal passion.
Using his depth of knowledge and experience in tax and accounting Adam is able to demonstrate a level of competence that is unique in the Financial Planning sector.
2005 – Graduated Bachelor of Science from the University of Western Sydney
2005 – Commenced employment with Wybenga & Partners and part-time accountancy studies
2007 – Graduated Bachelor of Business from the University of Western Sydney
2010 – Admitted as an Associate Member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants Australia
2010 – Promoted to Manager at Wybenga & Partners
2012 – Appointed as Associate Director
2015 – Awarded a Diploma of Financial Planning
2016 – Appointed as Partner of Wybenga Group and Director of Wybenga Financial
What is an Advisory Cadetship? An Advisory Cadetship enables you to commence your career whilst attaining the necessary university qualifications by studying part-time.
How does it work? Generally, our cadets complete a relevant business or accounting degree at the University of New South Wales, the University of Technology Sydney, Macquarie University, or the University of Western Sydney.
The Firm provides 3-hours paid study leave per week to attend university. This can either be taken at the one time or broken between days depending on the individual’s requirements. In addition, the Firm provides paid study leave for both mid-semester and end-of-year exams.
We take the work life balance very seriously at Wybenga Financial and our cadets are encouraged to have a fulfilling life outside the office. A typical day will have you arriving at the office at around 8.30am with most days concluding at 5.30pm.
What are the benefits of an Advisory Cadetship with Wybenga Financial? Our cadets benefit from the following:
Career path – on completion of their degree our cadets have significant practical experience which will assist them in advancing their careers
Work helps your studies – by working full-time our cadets are able to apply their practical knowledge in the university subjects
Camaraderie with other cadets – the Firm has a number of cadets at various stages of their career
Mentoring – cadets are paired with a senior staff member who oversees their progress and training both at work and with their studies
Communication and feedback – the Firm has an open door policy which enables all cadets to interact with all members of staff including Directors
Culture – the Firm promotes a friendly social culture with a number of functions throughout the year
Modern environment – including ‘socialising’ areas such as pool table and break out area
Training – ongoing support and technical training. We also provide internal and external training on a monthly basis
Remuneration – working full-time provides a market salary and independence with salaries being reviewed every 6-months
What happens when I complete my degree? The completion of your degree is the first step of what we hope to be a long and successful career with us. The next step is the commencement of a Diploma of Financial Planning followed by completing the requirements to become a Certified Financial Planner (CFP).
There are always progression opportunities for the right cadets and we are dedicated to the long term development of our staff.
Who should apply? Current Year 12 students or first/second year University Students who:
want to commence their career in financial advisory;
are due to commence or are currently completing a part-time business or commerce degree at university with an advisory major;
want to gain valuable hands-on experience while completing their qualifications;
are looking for a friendly working environment;
are team players who display initiative;
have a commitment to self-development;
possess excellent personal presentation and communication skills; and
are motivated and mature minded.
How do I apply for an Advisory Cadetship? To apply for a Cadetship position at Wybenga Financial send us your details. Please also include in your covering letter why you wish to do a cadetship, include relevant qualities you possess, main interests / achievements, and any previous employment.
Interested candidates should initially forward a resume/covering letter of no more than 3-pages. Please provide full details of contact information (telephone or e-mail).
What if I have more questions? For further information about our Cadetship program, please send your enquiry to .